PolymarketI should probably put more thought into how to make money consistently while factoring in this kind of noise.
I should probably put more thought into how to make money consistently while factoring in this kind of noise.
Open24hrs (🔜 𝝣2Ⅴ1🚀)参与话题 3消息总数 12
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共 12 条，显示第 1-12 条Yeah, when in Rome. But if that's really how weather markets work on Polymarket, then there's no way to make data-driven predictions. You're basically just relying on luck at that point.
Yeah, when in Rome. But if that's really how weather markets work on Polymarket, then there's no way to make data-driven predictions. You're basically just relying on luck at that point.
Even if it's logged hourly, shouldn't it be the highest temp observed during that hour that gets recorded? If everything between 4:55 and 5:50 gets skipped and only the 5:53 reading counts, that just feels like they're cherry-picking which temperatures to record.
Even if it's logged hourly, shouldn't it be the highest temp observed during that hour that gets recorded? If everything between 4:55 and 5:50 gets skipped and only the 5:53 reading counts, that just feels like they're cherry-picking which temperatures to record.
this page still shows the temp hitted 97°C at 5:20 pm
this page still shows the temp hitted 97°C at 5:20 pm
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https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDAL&hours=72&units=english_k&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=standard
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDAL&hours=72&units=english_k&chart=on&headers=on&obs=tabular&hourly=false&pview=standard
weather.gov <---is the official website of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) and they relies heavily on METAR data
weather.gov <---is the official website of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) and they relies heavily on METAR data
Both weather.gov and Wunderground pull their temps from METAR data. weather.gov shows it hit 96.8°F on July 2 at 5:20 PM, but Wunderground is still showing 95°F as the high for the day, and Polymarket's got the 94–95°F range at 99% too. Anyone have any idea what's going on here? Would love to hear an explanation if you do!
Both weather.gov and Wunderground pull their temps from METAR data. weather.gov shows it hit 96.8°F on July 2 at 5:20 PM, but Wunderground is still showing 95°F as the high for the day, and Polymarket's got the 94–95°F range at 99% too. Anyone have any idea what's going on here? Would love to hear an explanation if you do!
Got it. thanks
Got it. thanks
:59 mark of every hour gets skipped, but it seems odd that the 00:00 reading would be dropped. If only the :59 marks are skipped, shouldn't both the 00:00 and 01:00 readings count?
:59 mark of every hour gets skipped, but it seems odd that the 00:00 reading would be dropped. If only the :59 marks are skipped, shouldn't both the 00:00 and 01:00 readings count?
So WU basically skips that first 53-minute window at the start of each day. Applied to Dallas, that means the 86°F at 00:00 gets ignored, and the 84°F at 00:53 stands as the high...is it correct?
So WU basically skips that first 53-minute window at the start of each day. Applied to Dallas, that means the 86°F at 00:00 gets ignored, and the 84°F at 00:53 stands as the high...is it correct?
Hi, I have a question about the ongoing Dallas market. wunderground shows a high of 84°F so far, but it's missing data from 00:00 to 00:53 on 6/19. weather.gov, which uses the same METAR data, recorded 86°F during that missing window...So by their data, Dallas's high for 6/19 is currently 86°F. With flash flooding in Dallas rn, temps probably won't climb higher tonight. So will Polymarket settle the 6/19 high at 84°F, or could it end up at 86°F?
Hi, I have a question about the ongoing Dallas market. wunderground shows a high of 84°F so far, but it's missing data from 00:00 to 00:53 on 6/19. weather.gov, which uses the same METAR data, recorded 86°F during that missing window...So by their data, Dallas's high for 6/19 is currently 86°F. With flash flooding in Dallas rn, temps probably won't climb higher tonight. So will Polymarket settle the 6/19 high at 84°F, or could it end up at 86°F?