秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

天气市场内幕交易指控与数据源争议

2026-07-10 · Polymarket · 41 条相关讨论

0xFudrick 2026-07-09 21:16:11

Could you guys tell me what attracts you with weather markets?

Could you guys tell me what attracts you with weather markets?

0xFudrick 2026-07-09 21:16:18

Isn't everyone going off the same, open source models?

Isn't everyone going off the same, open source models?

0xFudrick 2026-07-09 21:16:27

How can one guy me more accurate than another?

How can one guy me more accurate than another?

Sterling 2026-07-09 21:21:06

infrastructure and prop modeling

infrastructure and prop modeling

Hans 2026-07-09 21:34:53

for me for example, i have no live, so im online the whole time and can monitor PWS and how forecasts are adjusted, so that is my edge

for me for example, i have no live, so im online the whole time and can monitor PWS and how forecasts are adjusted, so that is my edge

Modali 2026-07-09 22:14:46

There are a lot of models, a lot of variables (cloud, rain, wind)

There are a lot of models, a lot of variables (cloud, rain, wind)

funkyduck 2026-07-09 23:02:34

ukmo tells you that max temp will be X. What is the probability of X? What's the probability of X-1?

ukmo tells you that max temp will be X. What is the probability of X? What's the probability of X-1?

fbbrv 2026-07-10 00:16:40

ukmo, dwd, icon, icon d2, ecmwf

ukmo, dwd, icon, icon d2, ecmwf

Kuwallat 2026-07-10 00:48:31

it would be great if we could get the resolution change to nws for the america markets

it would be great if we could get the resolution change to nws for the america markets

Kuwallat 2026-07-10 00:49:34

poly already has multiple different resolutions so why not change it to NWS

poly already has multiple different resolutions so why not change it to NWS

Hans 2026-07-10 01:10:21

you mean switch to CLI like Kalshi?, pls no, i would stop trading us cities

you mean switch to CLI like Kalshi?, pls no, i would stop trading us cities

Kuwallat 2026-07-10 01:18:13

i mean doesn't the nws use CLI

i mean doesn't the nws use CLI

Modali 2026-07-10 01:48:25

Are you working in nws

Are you working in nws

Modali 2026-07-10 01:48:53

There are insiders sir and it’s not good

There are insiders sir and it’s not good

funkyduck 2026-07-10 01:55:44

do you have any proof of this?

do you have any proof of this?

Modali 2026-07-10 01:57:44

I’m not the only one saying this

I’m not the only one saying this

Modali 2026-07-10 01:58:23

They clear brackets before the outcome is out publicly

They clear brackets before the outcome is out publicly

Kuwallat 2026-07-10 02:05:27

doesnt poly have cities like that as well lol

doesnt poly have cities like that as well lol

Hans 2026-07-10 02:05:36

the top weather earner on kalshi are insiders, i think place 1 and 3, if im not mistaken

the top weather earner on kalshi are insiders, i think place 1 and 3, if im not mistaken

Hans 2026-07-10 02:06:25

poly only had paris (which was manipulated, so the airport was switched) and jakarta (which was removed)

poly only had paris (which was manipulated, so the airport was switched) and jakarta (which was removed)

Itzy 2026-07-10 02:07:25

Lagos too, I believe

Lagos too, I believe

Hans 2026-07-10 02:07:36

there are people who know the exact highest temperature hours before its released to the public

there are people who know the exact highest temperature hours before its released to the public

Hans 2026-07-10 02:07:55

no, they just write their reports by hand and constantly made mistakes

no, they just write their reports by hand and constantly made mistakes

Kuwallat 2026-07-10 02:08:25

WU is very inconsistent

WU is very inconsistent

Hans 2026-07-10 02:08:29

switching up 2 and 3, so instead of the temperature being 23 its 33 suddenly, or forgetting "/" so the reading wouldnt appear on WU

switching up 2 and 3, so instead of the temperature being 23 its 33 suddenly, or forgetting "/" so the reading wouldnt appear on WU

Kuwallat 2026-07-10 02:10:12

i notice paris but this was like a couple months ago haven't play since someone close out bracket around 5 mins before any public information was available

i notice paris but this was like a couple months ago haven't play since someone close out bracket around 5 mins before any public information was available

funkyduck 2026-07-10 03:23:17

Is your proof 'im not the only one saying this'? Or you have actual proof?

Is your proof 'im not the only one saying this'? Or you have actual proof?

Modali 2026-07-10 03:24:00

How am I supposed to prove it, what do you want

How am I supposed to prove it, what do you want

Modali 2026-07-10 03:25:03

Government document?

Government document?

funkyduck 2026-07-10 03:28:28

anything more than 'someone is saying'. You just believe ppl saying stuff on the internet?

anything more than 'someone is saying'. You just believe ppl saying stuff on the internet?

Modali 2026-07-10 03:32:22

Price action is all we look, that’s same for poly. If bracket is cleared 3 hours ago, I can understand that someone has data

Price action is all we look, that’s same for poly. If bracket is cleared 3 hours ago, I can understand that someone has data

mel 2026-07-10 03:58:00

Doesn't wethr have omo?

Doesn't wethr have omo?

WeTheNorth 2026-07-10 09:13:48

I think they have faster resource than public metar

I think they have faster resource than public metar

Modali 2026-07-10 13:59:08

What happened?

What happened?

Modali 2026-07-10 13:59:16

Can you elaborate

Can you elaborate

Hola_1234 (Dime tus pfs random) 2026-07-10 14:00:17

The weather went crazy, I don't know if El Niño ruined it

The weather went crazy, I don't know if El Niño ruined it

Modali 2026-07-10 14:01:03

It will be more exciting after summer

It will be more exciting after summer

Hans 2026-07-10 19:55:56

kalshi weather fees are still higher i think, also kalshi uses CLI for its resolution (which i absolutely hate), and only has US cities which is a major downside imo

kalshi weather fees are still higher i think, also kalshi uses CLI for its resolution (which i absolutely hate), and only has US cities which is a major downside imo